Edmonton RE Forum Takeaways

Mark Parsons – Chief Economist, ATB

• Canada’s economic challenges go beyond the impact of Trump-era U.S. policies.

• Core issue: Low productivity.

• Canada is falling behind other Western democracies in GDP per capita and struggles to attract investment capital.

Mark’s ideas to boost Canadian productivity:

1. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG):🔹 Alberta holds about 68% of Canada’s marketable natural gas reserves, making it a key player in future LNG exports as Canada expands global LNG capacity.

2. Tourism:🔹 Tourism contributed $10.7 billion to Alberta’s GDP in 2023, with Banff and Jasper National Parks drawing millions of international visitors annually.

3. Data Centres:🔹 Alberta offers some of the lowest industrial electricity rates in North America, attracting global data centre investments from companies like AWS and Google.

4. Petrochemicals:🔹 Alberta’s petrochemical sector is backed by $18 billion in new investment commitments since 2018, supporting everything from ethylene production to hydrogen development.

5. Food and Food Processing:🔹 Alberta exports over $12 billion in agri-food products annually, ranking as Canada’s third-largest food and beverage processing hub.

6. Technology (like Ballpark Development 😉):🔹 Tech sector employment in Alberta grew 25% between 2020 and 2023, with hundreds of startups (including Ballpark Development) transforming traditional industries like real estate and energy.

Bruce Alton – CEO, Robimtech

• Highlighted a major disconnect between the real estate and tech sectors:

  • At the Edmonton Real Estate Forum, few attendees had been to Upper Bound AI.

  • Likewise, few at Upper Bound AI had plans to attend real estate events.

  
  

• Opportunity: Real estate professionals understand the problems; tech professionals know how to build the solutions. More crossover is needed.

Upper Bound is Edmonton’s premier AI conference hosted by Amii, bringing together global experts, researchers, and industry leaders to explore the future of artificial intelligence across sectors. Held annually at the Edmonton Convention Centre, it features keynote talks, workshops, and networking to foster innovation and ethical AI adoption.

Construction & Talent

• The University of Alberta has the top-ranked construction engineering program in the world.

• Major construction firms like PCL are headquartered in Edmonton.

• There is record-high demand for:

  • Civil Engineers

  • Project Managers

  • Skilled Trades Professionals

Dave Young – Vice President, CBRE Edmonton

• Investors often need at least a 2x return on their equity for a project to make sense.

• High property taxes are a major barrier to returns and sound underwriting.

Tim Varughese – President, Synergy Group

• Speed matters in underwriting.

• The key metric: time to revenue in development.

Craig Corbett – COO, Tacada

• Although the City has made progress, permitting delays are still a bottleneck.

• “An extra 35 days can materially impact a project’s value to a developer or lender, especially when the model depends on repatriating capital once or twice a year.”

Financing Trends – Table Discussion

• At a table of senior finance professionals, CMHC came up.

• Bridge and mezzanine lending are making a comeback post-COVID as attractive financing tools.

• CMHC lending helped save many real estate projects during the pandemic:

  • Loan-to-Cost (LTC) was as high as 95%, assuming strict conditions were met.

• Today, that program has evolved:

  • LTC is now capped around 75%

  • New requirements include bonding

  • With all conditions considered, traditional lenders are sometimes a better option.